Mickey Kaus might kick Barbara Boxer's butt in the 2010 elections[sarc/], but when it comes to the health care deform debate raging among Congressional Democrats, he's missing a few pieces of the puzzle.
...passing health care reform offers Dems, in the not-so- long term, a chance to do more than avoid Republican attacks. It offers the chance to disprove them. For months, both GOP and Fox hosts have been talking about socialized medicine and death panels and vicious Medicare cuts and the government coming between you and your doctor, etc. If Democrats pass the bill and none of this happens, Republican opponents will be more than defeated. They'll be discredited...Retreating on health care, on the other hand, gives credence to the Republican claims. Indeed, for all practical purposes it lets them win the argument.
Kaus' solution-Pass the bill, ASAP-doesn't help the Donkey Party at all in November, when voter hatred for the bill could possibly immolate the Democrat congressional majorities in both houses. Oh, but Kaus has got an answer.
...OK, you say. If Dems pass reform and the sky doesn't fall, that might help them in the semi-near term. But how would it help them this November, when many will be facing what looks like an impressive wave of popular discontent? One answer is to look at the public's response to the "stimulus" bill. It was unreasonable to expect last year's package of spending to have an immediate effect on the unemployment rate. But when the unemployment rate didn't fall, did voters say "Well, let's give it another year and see"? Or did they start to think the stimulus was a flop? Answer: flop. Similarly, if health reform passes and nothing much changes, they will very quickly start to suspect that the GOP predictions of doom were bogus.
The problem here is that the average citizen's health care is going to change very quickly and very dramatically when either the House or Senate bill passes. ObamaCare isn't some rinky-dink Washington DC park refurbishing program. It's a massive bazillion dollar scheme that will create vast new national bureaucracies, which will in turn trigger towering tax hikes to pay for it all.
How can that not immediately change the medical system in America? The economy reacted when the federal government farted out the relatively small Cash for Clunkers program. The health care reform plans on the table are behemoths in comparison.
Oh and better still: The gloriously awesome awesomeness that is ObamaCare doesn't kick in until 2014. So the average American's health care gets worse, her taxes go up and she sees none of that rich creamy gubmint medicine for two more years. How does all that square up with Kaus' notion that passing the bill will be politically less painful than not passing it?
EDIT: I'm a Grade-A jerk for not saying 'Thank You' to the one and only Baldilocks herself for allowing a schlub like me to guest-post here on her site. You rule, Baldi.
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